- UK inflation held at 3 per cent in February, but is forecast to rise again due to the ongoing Iran war.
- Oil prices have increased from around $70 a barrel to nearly $100 since the conflict began, which is expected to drive up energy bills, transport, and production costs.
- This surge in oil prices is anticipated to push inflation back upwards, moving away from the Bank of England's earlier projection of reaching 2 per cent by spring.
- The Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD) has warned that food inflation could exceed 8 per cent by June if disruptions to global energy markets persist.
- Financial markets are now pricing in the possibility of multiple interest rate increases this year, potentially up to four by the end of 2026, reflecting a highly uncertain inflation outlook.
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