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REVEALED: David mericle | Vintage Vibes

Goldman just raised recession odds to 25%. Here's what Trump's war economy is doing to jobs

Payrolls shed 92,000 jobs in February, openings keep falling, and Goldman says the breakeven rate isn't being met. The labor market is sending a warning.

Fortune

Trump crackdown drives 80% plunge in immigrant employment, reshaping labor market, Goldman says

Net immigration averaged approximately 1 million people per year during the 2010s. Not anymore.

Fortune

January Fed Meeting: Updates and Commentary

The January Fed meeting marked the first central bank gathering of 2026, with Fed Chair Powell & Co. voting to keep interest rates unchanged.

Kiplinger

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The weakest labor market since 2011 has BofA asking, ‘Dude, where’s my job?’

“A lack of recovery in the jobs market and a slower U.S. economy are key risks to watch for in 2026.”

Fortune

A divided Fed meets today, and Wall Street is watching for 4 key words from Powell: ‘In a good place’

If he does not use that phrase, he may be open to further interest rate cuts.

Fortune

December Fed Meeting: Updates and Commentary

The December Fed meeting is one of the last key economic events of 2025, with Wall Street closely watching what Chair Powell & Co. will do about interest rates.

Kiplinger

This week's expected rate cut could be the last one for a while

Members of both the hawkish and dovish wings of the committee have been vocal about their diverging views.

Axios

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Welcome to the era of 'low-hire, more-fire,' warns top economist—the days of talent hoarding are over

"As the focus among businesses now turns to efficiencies and increasing productivity, we expect layoffs to increase, causing unemployment to rise."

Fortune

Powell Taps The Brakes In The Fog, But Traders Keep Hitting The Gas

Fed Chair Jerome Powell firmly pushed back against market expectations for a December rate cut on Wednesday, cautioning that it's more prudent to slow down when visibility is low—yet his remarks only modestly dented investor optimism, with traders still essentially betting on another move by the end of the year.

Benzinga

Goldman economists on the Gen Z hiring nightmare: ‘Jobless growth’ is probably the new normal

“History also suggests that the full consequences of AI for the labor market might not become apparent until a recession hits.”

Fortune

The Fed's Just Warming Up — Goldman Sachs Sees More Rate Cuts Coming

The Federal Reserve may have delivered its first rate cut in nine months on Wednesday — but according to Goldman Sachs, it likely won't be the last.

Benzinga

Jamie Dimon isn’t convinced by the market’s theory that huge job revisions aren’t a recession indicator

“Hopefully things will be okay, but you do see that kind of weakening,” he said.

Fortune

Goldman Sachs doubles down on tariff research that infuriated Trump, saying average Americans will bear two-thirds of the costs

“We stand by the results of this study,” Goldman economist David Mericle told CNBC’s Squawk on the Street on Wednesday.

Fortune

Powell didn’t just refuse to deliver a rate cut—he also hinted a raise might have been on the cards

Powell put a cat among the pigeons by suggesting he was minded to "look through" tariff-induced inflation by not increasing interest rates.

Fortune

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Benzinga

Get Ready For Five Fed Cuts, Markets Got It All Wrong: Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs is doubling down on its dovish rate path forecast, saying the Federal Reserve is poised to deliver five interest rate cuts through the end of next year—three in 2025 and two more in 2026—a significantly more aggressive easing cycle than markets are currently pricing in.

Fortune

Jerome Powell may finally grant Trump his interest rate wish thanks to China deal

President Trump's wish for a rate cut may be looking more realistic as economic uncertainty clears—but it still won't be happening any time soon.

Fortune

Powell to hold off on rate cuts amid Trump policy uncertainty, Goldman Sachs says

Analysts are expecting the FOMC to push back their "normalization" base rate cuts amid economic uncertainty, as Jerome Powell takes a step back from any action despite pressure from Donald Trump.

Fortune

Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech just got a lot less predictable

The economic data is difficult to parse, and that means Powell’s speech has become correspondingly more difficult to foretell.

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Fortune

Today's Fed meeting is merely a warm up act for September according to Wall Street—but they shouldn't count their chickens just yet

Wall Street analysts are not waiting to hear the outcome of today's FOMC discussions. Instead, they want after clues about Q3.

Fortune

With interest rate hikes in Jerome Powell’s rearview mirror, Wall Street starts a new guessing game: Timing when the Fed will cut

With Powell touting “progress” on inflation, the Fed predicted three rate hikes next year—but many on Wall Street see four or even five.

Zenger

Traders Brace For Fed Meeting With No Rate Hike Expected

Goldman Sachs forecasts focus on 'insurance cuts' amid economic growth concerns.

Fortune

Wall Street buys into Bidenomics, with the top economists at Goldman and other banks saying we could really dodge a recession

The White House is taking a victory lap, and economists at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are offering rosier economic forecasts.

Businessweek

Recession Calls Keep Getting Pushed Back, Giving Soft Landing Believers Hope

Defying sharp rate hikes, unemployment stays low and consumers resilient.

Fortune

3 signs the labor market is rebalancing in a way that could prevent a recession, according to Goldman Sachs

Goldman’s David Mericle sees “encouraging news about the prospects for achieving the gentle rebalancing of the labor market needed for a soft landing.”

People

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