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EXPLAINED: Torsten slok | Vintage Vibes

Economists are loathe to mention recessions, but odds just hit 49% for the next 12 months according to Moody’s top economist

"If oil prices remain elevated for much longer (weeks and not months), a recession will be difficult to avoid," Zandi said.

Fortune

U.S. debt is competing with a record supply of corporate bonds, which is pushing up the cost of federal borrowing just as war spending piles up

Last Tuesday saw the single busiest day on record for U.S. corporate bond sales.

Fortune

Goldman finds ‘no meaningful relationship between AI and productivity at the economy-wide level,’ but a 30% boost for 2 specific use cases

Have you got “AI-nxiety?” Goldman took a closer look at the last earnings season and found a mismatch between hype and reality.

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Moody’s flags $662 billion risk at the heart of the data center build-out by just 5 companies

“The accounting liability is unlikely to reflect certain plausible future scenarios,” Moody’s said of Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Oracle, and Microsoft.

Fortune

People are getting fake news on their phones and that’s increasing the risk of a market crash

The great smartphone panic of 2026 builds off the “dumb money” revolution of the past five years. Now viral doomerism is threatening the real economy.

Fortune

Fed staff are more worried about stock prices than tech debt, even as hyperscalers go on a borrowing binge for their AI spending

In the fourth quarter of 2025 alone, tech companies issued a record $108.7 billion in bonds, according to Moody’s Analytics, capping a full-year total of nearly $300 billion.

Fortune

Sam Altman says the quiet part out loud, confirming some companies are ‘AI washing’ by blaming unrelated layoffs on the technology

Some economists are warning there’s no sign of AI-related job displacement appearing in the labor data. Altman claimed it’s just a matter of time until it does.

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Thousands of CEOs just admitted AI had no impact on employment or productivity—and it has economists resurrecting a paradox from 40 years ago

In the 1980s, economist Robert Solow made an observation that reminded economists of today’s AI boom: “You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.”

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One of Stanford's original AI gurus says productivity liftoff has begun after doubling in 2025 amid transition to 'harvest phase' along J-curve

"We are transitioning from an era of AI experimentation to one of structural utility."

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AI is everywhere except in the data, suggesting it will enhance labor in some sectors rather than replace workers in all sectors, top economist says

"Maybe there is a J‑curve effect for AI, where it takes time for AI to show up in the macro data. Maybe not."

Fortune

Microsoft AI chief gives it 18 months—for all white-collar work to be automated by AI

Mustafa Suleyman believes current AI computational power will only accelerate, disrupting every kind of work you do “sitting down at a computer.”

Fortune

Wall Street’s top analyst sees something weird going on with gold and interest rates, and warns inflation is rewriting market logic

“Investors are anxious about the level of returns they get in traditional assets,” Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok told Fortune.

Fortune

Why you shouldn’t worry about AI eating the stock market, top analyst says. The U.S. economy is ‘about to take off’

Software’s disruption by AI may be a problem for software stocks, but not for a booming economy, Apollo’s Torsten Slok argues.

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‘We’re not in a bubble yet’ because only 3 out of 4 conditions are met, top economist says. Cue the OpenAI IPO

Owen Lamont told Fortune about his “Four Horsemen” of the bubble apocalypse, and one hasn’t left the stable yet.

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Trump's housing market plan contains a fatal flaw and multiple obstacles, Morgan Stanley says

"Affordability in U.S. housing is a tricky issue that lacks a silver bullet," the bank said. Trump's actions are only "modestly helpful" for affordability.

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Elon Musk says that in 10 to 20 years, work will be optional and money will be irrelevant thanks to AI and robotics

“It’ll be like playing sports or a video game or something like that,” the Tesla CEO said.

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As U.S. debt soars past $38 trillion, the flood of corporate bonds is a growing threat to the Treasury supply

"The significant increase in hyperscaler issuance raises questions about who will be the marginal buyer of IG paper."

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Wages are actually growing faster than inflation. Here’s why you don’t believe it

“I’m less convinced about this K-shaped recovery than other people are,” Harvard's Jason Furman says. But look at the bottom of the scale.

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Bank of America predicts an ‘air pocket,’ not an AI bubble, fueled by mountains of debt piling up from the data center rush

“Is this 2000? Are we in a bubble? No,” BofA’s strategy chief Savita Subramanian said. “Will AI continue in unfettered leadership? No.”

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‘Dr. Doom’ Nouriel Roubini breaks with the crowd on the AI bubble, saying the U.S. is headed for a ‘growth recession’ and not a market crash

“The now common view,” according to the NYU Stern School of Business professor emeritus, “is incorrect over the medium term.”

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Top analyst sees 'genuine cracks for mid- to lower-end consumers' as the K-shaped economy continues to bite

Mid- to lower-income households are struggling with an "affordability crisis," notes Lisa Shalett of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Credit stress is "flashing yellow."

Fortune

In just 15 years, the average U.S. homebuyer went from 39 to 59 years old: Top analyst reveals how the housing market has warped in one generation

The first-time homebuyer just hit 40 years old for the first time ever, but the average homebuyer is nearly a senior citizen.

Fortune

The K-shaped economy has come for your wages, as lower-income Americans sees their gains plummet to the weakest rate in a decade

A decade ago, low-income Americans saw the highest income growth, Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok said. Today, the opposite is true.

Fortune

Scott Galloway warns of ‘nowhere to hide’ in markets if the OpenAI story unravels

"If the music stops, there's not only not any chairs, there's like hot coals they're all going to sit on. It's going to be ugly."

Fortune

The S&P 500 is also in a K-shaped economy, says Apollo, with a widening gap between the winners and losers

Part of the growing divide between the rich and the average worker can also be traced back to where these households derive their wealth—namely, from their exposure to the booming stock market of 2025.

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